Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 19,099
2 New Jersey 17,767
3 Massachusetts 13,767
4 Rhode Island 13,681
5 District of Columbia 12,032
6 Connecticut 11,656
7 Delaware 9,418
8 Illinois 9,164
9 Louisiana 8,369
10 Maryland 8,325
11 Nebraska 6,855
12 Iowa 5,918
13 Pennsylvania 5,804
14 Michigan 5,601
15 South Dakota 5,417
16 Indiana 5,033
17 Virginia 4,850
18 Mississippi 4,829
19 Colorado 4,361
20 Georgia 4,084
21 Minnesota 4,070
22 New Mexico 3,511
23 Alabama 3,371
24 Kansas 3,265
25 North Dakota 3,259
26 New Hampshire 3,227
27 Tennessee 3,186
28 Wisconsin 2,955
29 Ohio 2,901
30 Washington 2,866
31 Utah 2,792
32 Nevada 2,677
33 California 2,633
34 Florida 2,480
35 North Carolina 2,442
36 Arizona 2,440
37 Arkansas 2,166
38 Kentucky 2,128
39 South Carolina 2,095
40 Texas 2,095
41 Missouri 2,088
42 Maine 1,628
43 Oklahoma 1,584
44 Vermont 1,560
45 Idaho 1,550
46 Wyoming 1,513
47 West Virginia 1,108
48 Puerto Rico 1,091
49 Oregon 968
50 Alaska 587
51 Montana 453
52 Hawaii 449

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Nebraska 156
2 Virginia 143
3 Maryland 142
4 Rhode Island 134
5 District of Columbia 126
6 Iowa 110
7 Alabama 104
8 Illinois 102
9 Mississippi 102
10 New Jersey 102
11 Minnesota 96
12 Wisconsin 89
13 Massachusetts 78
14 South Dakota 77
15 Louisiana 71
16 Delaware 70
17 Indiana 69
18 New York 67
19 Connecticut 64
20 Georgia 61
21 Tennessee 60
22 California 59
23 Arkansas 56
24 Arizona 55
25 New Mexico 53
26 North Carolina 51
27 Pennsylvania 50
28 Colorado 49
29 Texas 49
30 New Hampshire 47
31 Kentucky 45
32 Utah 44
33 Ohio 41
34 South Carolina 39
35 Michigan 37
36 West Virginia 37
37 Washington 35
38 Nevada 31
39 Maine 28
40 Missouri 28
41 Kansas 27
42 Florida 23
43 Puerto Rico 23
44 Idaho 19
45 Wyoming 19
46 Oklahoma 15
47 North Dakota 11
48 Oregon 10
49 Alaska 8
50 Vermont 6
51 Montana 1
52 Hawaii 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,513
2 New Jersey 1,283
3 Connecticut 1,073
4 Massachusetts 963
5 District of Columbia 641
6 Rhode Island 639
7 Louisiana 589
8 Michigan 537
9 Pennsylvania 421
10 Illinois 412
11 Maryland 401
12 Delaware 354
13 Indiana 307
14 Colorado 246
15 Mississippi 232
16 Georgia 182
17 Ohio 179
18 Minnesota 173
19 New Hampshire 170
20 Iowa 161
21 New Mexico 159
22 Virginia 156
23 Washington 146
24 Nevada 133
25 Alabama 120
26 Arizona 117
27 Missouri 116
28 Florida 110
29 California 102
30 Kentucky 94
31 Wisconsin 94
32 South Carolina 91
33 Vermont 88
34 Nebraska 87
35 Oklahoma 82
36 North Carolina 81
37 North Dakota 78
38 Kansas 71
39 Maine 62
40 South Dakota 61
41 Texas 55
42 Tennessee 52
43 Idaho 45
44 Arkansas 41
45 Puerto Rico 41
46 West Virginia 41
47 Oregon 35
48 Utah 33
49 Wyoming 25
50 Montana 15
51 Hawaii 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 21
2 Massachusetts 10
3 New Jersey 9
4 Illinois 8
5 Connecticut 7
6 District of Columbia 6
7 Maryland 6
8 Mississippi 6
9 Pennsylvania 6
10 Colorado 5
11 Iowa 5
12 Minnesota 5
13 New Hampshire 5
14 New York 5
15 Virginia 5
16 Delaware 4
17 Indiana 4
18 Michigan 4
19 Georgia 3
20 Louisiana 3
21 Ohio 3
22 Arizona 2
23 Nebraska 2
24 New Mexico 2
25 North Carolina 2
26 North Dakota 2
27 Wisconsin 2
28 Alabama 1
29 California 1
30 Florida 1
31 Kentucky 1
32 Maine 1
33 Missouri 1
34 Nevada 1
35 Oklahoma 1
36 South Carolina 1
37 South Dakota 1
38 Tennessee 1
39 Washington 1
40 Wyoming 1
41 Alaska 0
42 Arkansas 0
43 Hawaii 0
44 Idaho 0
45 Kansas 0
46 Montana 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 Texas 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 West Virginia 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 123,449 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 82,443 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 74,862 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 69,166 4 99
Lake Tennessee 58,865 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 7,415 263 91
Richland South Carolina 3,444 690 78
Pierce Washington 2,114 1030 67
Orange California 1,842 1152 63
York South Carolina 1,320 1461 53

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Terrell Georgia 3,048 1 99
Early Georgia 2,944 2 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 3 99
Hancock Georgia 2,601 4 99
Essex New Jersey 2,038 5 99
Richland South Carolina 159 580 81
Davidson Tennessee 86 845 73
Pierce Washington 86 847 73
Orange California 45 1197 61
York South Carolina 25 1443 54

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons